很多关系香港局势的朋友来信问我,香港接下来会发生什么,下一步应该怎么走。根据我过去二十多年与中共较量的经验,以及对他们过去逐渐摸索出来的一整套对付大型抗议行动的模式的了解,我大致可以给他们这次如何对付香港雨伞革命划出一个路线图。

供参与和关注香港雨伞革命的朋友们参考。如果我们事先识破了他们的诡计,他们就不能够轻易得逞,所谓知己知彼,百战不殆。

由香港学生引爆的占中行动爆发后,引起了国际社会和国内民众的广泛关注。中共高度紧张,希望能尽快将这场运动镇压下去。

他们首先使出第一招,也是过去在大陆累试累灵的一招:施放催泪弹驱赶抗议人群,以此吓唬香港市民,他们认定中国人都是胆小怕事之徒,没想到这招在香港不灵,反而激起更多民众上街抗议;

于是他们使出准备已久随时可以派上用场的第二招:暗中指使黑帮和恶棍去示威现场挑起事端,用这种下三烂的方式继续吓唬示威民众,迫使示威民众知难而退,结果这招还是无效,民众更加被激怒;

于是他们使出第三招,也是惯用于对付造成了巨大社会影响力的抗议活动:开动文宣机器和舆情工具,通过官媒和被他们收买的亲共媒体还有千万五毛大军,对占中行动进行全面抹黑和攻击,弯曲事实,颠倒黑白,混淆视听,让人们无从得出正确的判断,从而导致运动形成广泛的争议。然而这招似乎还是不起作用,连日来抗议民众只增不减;

于是他们使出第四招,也是很多国家对付抗议民众比较通行的一招:释放所谓的善意,愿意与抗议民众代表对话,共同商讨解决方案。这是一种拖延战术,企在与示威民众打疲劳战,其目的是拖垮这场抗命行动,而不是真正的倾听和回应民众的诉求,这招也很快被有经验的占中行动的领导者们识破。如此以来,他们的武功几乎全废;

前面四招都没能见效,令他们非常沮丧。预计他们很快就会使用最后一招,也是他们的杀手涧:分化领导这次抗命行动的各方力量,包括占中发起人,各民主党派领袖和学生领袖等。接下来他们很可能会通过各种途径,或明或暗地分头与能影响这场运动的各界领军人物进行接触,给他们画出大小不同的画饼,许诺只要停止抗命行动,就立即给予兑现。于是一部份没有经验或见利望义的人会以巧妙的方式背叛这场运动,以各种堂而皇之的理由呼应当局,要求尽快结束抗议行动。这个时候,就能检验真假社会运动领袖了。冒着巨大风险继续坚持抗命行动的人,就是这场运动的真正领袖,而变着花样临阵脱逃的人则属于投机者,应该遭到民众抛弃。如果这场运动还没有被分化前大家就能形成这样的共识,那么,那些潜在可能被分化的人,被分化的可能性就少了,因为他们会多一层可能被识破的顾忌。过去香港民主派被分化得很利害,各民主党派之间口水战一直没有停止。今天是大家低下高傲的头,想全体香港市民所想、急全体香港市民所急的时候了!

当然,中共还有最后一张所谓的王牌:军队镇压。他们曾经也放过风要48小时内出兵,以此吓唬香港人。我当时在接受媒体采访时,就断言散布这种消息是为了吓唬香港人,同时试探香港和国际社会的反应,是不可能的事情。因为他们真要出兵镇压,会严格保密,半点风也不漏。如果内部有人泄密,就会披露更多细节,而不是仅仅只有48小时要出兵镇压的情资。结果事实证明我的判断是对的。关于是否会出兵镇压,我的基本判断是,可能性不大,可以说没有。除非发生我们没有预料到的事情,如大陆政治内乱,各派相互公开斗争,或者由于不可预知的原因导致香港局势失控,社会出现大规模骚乱,国际社会希望中共出兵恢复秩序,否则,面对现在这种和平抗议的局面,中共出兵镇压就等于自杀。有人说中共当年镇压“六四”不是照样没事吗?问题是,今天的香港不是昨天的北京,香港是国际金融大都市,曾经是英国统治,香港政权移交时,中英签署过联合声明,英国政府和它的盟国至今对香港还有一份道义责任,不会完全坐视不管。而且现在是网络时代,香港发生的每一件事情都会很快传遍全世界,中共无法一手遮天;而当年的北京是中共暴政的权力中心,完全受中共统治,与国际社会完全没有接轨,也没有网络,人们几乎与外部世界隔绝。最重要的是,二十五年后的今天,全球绝大多数国家都实现了民主,一人一票的选举方式已经成为各国常态。香港人追求一人一票的普选无论从法理上还是情理上讲,都天经地义。因此,如果中共面对如此强大的民意压力,仍然顽固地坚持不让香港人普选特首,还出兵镇压和平抗议的民众,必将激怒整个世界,令全球正义力量尤其是十三亿大陆民众站到香港市民一边,共同反击中共暴政。而中共内部也会出现强大的反对军队镇压的声音,这种内外呼应的合力,必将彻底动摇这个政权的根基,最终终结中共长达六十五年的残暴统治。中共对此比我们更加清楚,因此不到最后垂死挣扎的那一刻,都不太可能像镇压“六四”一样出兵镇压这场和平抗命运动。

基于以上分析,我认为大家只要按现在的方式继续坚守下去,不冒进不退却,不温不火,有理有节,不给中共任何镇压的口实。中共会越来越被动。不出多久,形势就会发生戏剧性的变化,无论是中共外部,还是内部,都会出现裂变。他们在消耗我们的能量,企图分化瓦解我们,个个击破,我们也在消耗他们的能量,时间一久也会引起他们内部处理此事的意见分歧,直到最后矛盾公开化。这种对决是对等的。现在就看谁能够坚持到最后。大家要时刻记住,当我们感到很难挺住时,他们其实更难挺住。当年埃及革命就是人民与当局的意志力的对决。当局用了种种卑鄙和残暴的手段对付抗议民众,致使抗议步步升级,导致数百人死亡,而勇敢的抗议民众始终坚守开罗解放广场。最后众叛亲离开的独裁者穆巴拉克在巨大的国际和国内压力下,被迫鞠躬下台,向天下人谢罪。整个过程不过十八天!今天,香港也可能发生同样的故事。香港市民如果继续坚持下去,中共为了舍卒保帅,极有可能让梁振英下台,收回假普选的政改放案,以平息民愤,挽回败局。关键就看我们能否挺住!

我们每多坚持一天,就离胜利更近一步。加油,香港!

原文

https://www.aboluowang.com/2014/1006/453929.html

编辑:MO FO

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